Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc365…2e53 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,875 (-6%) realized −$3,743 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%81W / 77L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day101.1pace
Fees−$737est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 48% -8.9%
≤30d 158 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 158 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 48% -8.9%
all 158 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 48% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 39% -25.6%
20% -35.2% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$245 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,093
Realized−$3,743
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses81 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$737
Open positions12
Markets (closed)158 / 171
History coverage5d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day101.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Under 50¢ 54¢ $800 $856 +$56 (+7%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 19¢ 8¢ $146 $62 −$84 (-58%)
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Athletics 16¢ 23¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+44%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 29¢ 11¢ $70 $27 −$44 (-62%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Seattle Mariners 17¢ 14¢ $32 $26 −$7 (-21%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Seattle Mariners 16¢ 8¢ $39 $20 −$18 (-47%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 30¢ 20¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-31%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 15¢ 6¢ $43 $16 −$27 (-62%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5 Under 20¢ 17¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-15%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 20¢ 14¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Over 17¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 21 $252 +$260 +103%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $500 −$189 -38%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $93 +$3 +3%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $309 +$228 +74%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 +$262 +321%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 21 $92 +$10 +11%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 21 $219 +$88 +40%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 21 $381 +$136 +36%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 21 $281 −$20 -7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $13,837 +$3,304 +24%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $735 +$276 +38%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $217 +$155 +71%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,219 −$1,110 -91%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1,045 −$963 -92%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $156 −$151 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $58 +$25 +43%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,038 +$2,511 +123%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 21 $247 −$243 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $5,890 −$5,176 -88%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $4,221 +$2,904 +69%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $566 −$285 -50%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $22 +$15 +65%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $346 +$34 +10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $291 +$86 +30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $167 −$16 -9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $438 +$44 +10%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 21 $27 +$2 +7%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 21 $46 +$62 +137%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 21 $15 +$4 +31%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 21 $81 +$25 +30%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 21 $21 +$8 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $237 −$125 -53%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 21 $114 −$46 -40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $214 −$167 -78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1,305 +$1,197 +92%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,068 +$312 +29%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $666 −$551 -83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $44 −$13 -29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $36 −$5 -15%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $394 +$75 +19%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $1,443 +$627 +43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +104%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $214 +$310 +145%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$10 +43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $793 +$635 +80%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $239 +$307 +129%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $10 42m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 88¢ $9 44m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Athletics 90¢ $92 50m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 83¢ $6,535 52m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 54m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 49¢ $189 55m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $27 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $32 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $3 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 88¢ $38 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $273 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $82 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 57¢ $13 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 93¢ $14 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3,772 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 39¢ $14 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 74¢ $7 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 19¢ $20 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $273 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $16 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 17¢ $131 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $184 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 65¢ $22 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 16¢ $0 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.54 · official $1,091.98 (match) · 645 history records