Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc364…47f4 other 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.1% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage128d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $372 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $278 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $446 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $349 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $351 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $233 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $313 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $695 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 15h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 16h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 17h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 22h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 28h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 30h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 37h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 39h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records