Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc363…f763 other 40 markets active 7h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$23
other 11% −$1
sports 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 15% 0% -10.2%
all 39 -2.8% -12.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage614d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $4 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $22 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $255 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $2,575 −$6 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,991 −$7 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $1,232 −$9 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $6 32d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.89 · official $22.89 (match) · 358 history records