Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc362…3d85 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$111 (+14%) realized +$112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$29
sports 21% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.7% +15.5% 100% 33% +9.2%
≤30d 3 +27.7% +15.5% 100% 33% +9.2%
≤90d 3 +27.7% +15.5% 100% 33% +9.2%
all 3 +27.7% +15.5% 100% 33% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 33% +9.2%
10% +4.5% 33% -1.3%
15% -5.6% 33% -10.8%
20% -14.9% 33% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $232 $234 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $272 +$26 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 +$70 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $236 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $297 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 90¢ $272 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $104 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $168 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $97 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.07 · official $291.07 (match) · 8 history records