Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C3 0xc361…60c2 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$721 (-16%) realized −$721 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$637per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-30.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-22.8%	-30.2%	57%	43%	-24.8%
≤30d	7	-22.8%	-30.2%	57%	43%	-24.8%
≤90d	7	-22.8%	-30.2%	57%	43%	-24.8%
all	7	-22.8%	-30.2%	57%	43%	-24.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.2%	43%	-24.8%
10%	-36.9%	43%	-32.0%
15%	-43.0%	43%	-38.6%
20%	-48.5%	14%	-44.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$300 vs −$651 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$721

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$637

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$899	+$338	+38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$404	−$401	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$824	−$824	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$504	+$220	+44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$730	−$727	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,090	+$640	+59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,237	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$899	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$404	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$101	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$724	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$504	5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$730	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,730	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	34¢	$101	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$988	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$10	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	99¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records