Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc35e…cb07 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 715d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$361 (-4%) realized −$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$559
14 days−$559
30 days−$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$262
sports 16% −$165
world 5% +$4
politics 4% +$44
tech 2% −$15
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -35.3% -41.5% 25% 11% -30.5%
≤30d 39 -32.2% -38.6% 28% 13% -30.1%
≤90d 53 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 26% -24.9%
all 110 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 25% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 25% -13.1%
10% -24.8% 19% -21.4%
15% -32.1% 15% -29.0%
20% -38.8% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

715d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage715d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 15 $174 −$111 -64%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$27 -60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $386 +$16 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $382 +$4 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $601 +$13 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$8 +782%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$4 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 −$1 -26%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $22 +$1 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $215 +$12 +6%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 +$8 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$10 +103%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 +$3 +284%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $10 32m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 53m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 53m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 54m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 57m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $309 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.06 · official $14.06 · 369 history records