Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc35b…28b6 other 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$926 (-7%) realized −$926 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%123W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$218
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$316
sports 23% −$688
crypto 1% +$142
world 1% −$100
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -25.6% -32.7% 41% 41% +0.3%
≤30d 63 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 44% -9.1%
≤90d 150 -18.0% -25.8% 37% 37% -19.7%
all 300 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -15.8%
10% -25.1% 39% -23.9%
15% -32.3% 38% -31.2%
20% -38.9% 35% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$41 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses123 / 177
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage312d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $142 +$96 +68%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $152 +$167 +110%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$121 -60%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$53 -52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$99 +49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$26 +517%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$82 -80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $238 35m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $130 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $319 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $81 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 38h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $48 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $139 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $159 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records