Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc35a…1ccd sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$810 (+4%) realized +$838 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,000per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$754
crypto 6% +$47
politics 1% −$36
world 0% +$9
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +10.1% -0.4% 100% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 4 +6.6% -3.6% 100% 25% -5.6%
all 18 +28.9% +16.6% 78% 56% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 56% -6.0%
10% +5.5% 44% -15.0%
15% -4.7% 44% -23.2%
20% -14.1% 28% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,470) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$608 vs −$1,927 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$838
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,000
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $60 $96 +$36 (+60%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $60 $24 −$36 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 06 $61 +$9 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 06 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Apr 02 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6? Mar 20 $40 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 01 $1,470 +$630 +43%
Rockets vs. Heat Mar 01 $258 +$342 +133%
Knicks vs. Bucks Feb 28 $1,152 +$448 +39%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 26 $3,885 −$3,885 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $480 +$1,520 +317%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $2,190 +$810 +37%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 25 $1,064 −$1,064 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 25 $2,430 +$2,070 +85%
Jazz vs. Rockets Feb 24 $1,566 +$234 +15%
Raptors vs. Bucks Feb 23 $1,357 +$943 +70%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $936 +$1,464 +156%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 20 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 04 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $56 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $5 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $380 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 95¢ $380 73d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $59 94d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $99 94d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $111 94d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $128 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 110d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Heat 43¢ $258 115d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Pelicans 70¢ $1,470 115d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $54 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $108 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $35 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $116 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $58 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $468 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $9 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $12 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $5 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $1 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $50 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $6 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $25 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $23 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $12 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Knicks 72¢ $169 116d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 37¢ $619 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.67 · official $199.68 (match) · 254 history records