trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 100% | 50% | -3.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 100% | 25% | -5.6% |
| all | 18 | +28.9% | +16.6% | 78% | 56% | -6.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +16.6% | 56% | -6.0% |
| 10% | +5.5% | 44% | -15.0% |
| 15% | -4.7% | 44% | -23.2% |
| 20% | -14.1% | 28% | -30.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 80¢ | $60 | $96 | +$36 (+60%) |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $46 | $50 | +$4 (+9%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $26 | $30 | +$4 (+16%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 20¢ | $60 | $24 | −$36 (-60%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 06 | $61 | +$9 | +15% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | Jun 06 | $380 | +$20 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | May 01 | $380 | +$20 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? | Apr 02 | $397 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6? | Mar 20 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | Mar 01 | $1,470 | +$630 | +43% |
| Rockets vs. Heat | Mar 01 | $258 | +$342 | +133% |
| Knicks vs. Bucks | Feb 28 | $1,152 | +$448 | +39% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Bulls | Feb 26 | $3,885 | −$3,885 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | Feb 26 | $480 | +$1,520 | +317% |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | Feb 26 | $2,190 | +$810 | +37% |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | Feb 25 | $1,064 | −$1,064 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Nets | Feb 25 | $2,430 | +$2,070 | +85% |
| Jazz vs. Rockets | Feb 24 | $1,566 | +$234 | +15% |
| Raptors vs. Bucks | Feb 23 | $1,357 | +$943 | +70% |
| Nuggets vs. Clippers | Feb 20 | $936 | +$1,464 | +156% |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Feb 20 | $1,300 | −$1,300 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Feb 04 | $1,458 | −$1,458 | -100% |