Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc358…97b9 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$28 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$5
sports 10% −$41
world 10% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 50% -15.8%
≤30d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 50% -15.8%
≤90d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 50% -15.8%
all 10 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 50% -15.8%
10% -25.8% 20% -23.9%
15% -33.0% 10% -31.3%
20% -39.6% 10% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 68¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 +$3 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 +$4 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$5 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 −$16 -26%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$8 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$27 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $12 5m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $10 5m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $29 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $29 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $27 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $49 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $41 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $80 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $72 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.72 · official $41.72 (match) · 24 history records