Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc357…363e sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$218 (-12%) realized −$232 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$426
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$21
other 23% −$134
crypto 15% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -28.1% -34.9% 32% 32% -13.2%
≤30d 79 -33.2% -39.6% 30% 29% -22.4%
≤90d 79 -33.2% -39.6% 30% 29% -22.4%
all 79 -33.2% -39.6% 30% 29% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 29% -22.4%
10% -45.3% 28% -29.8%
15% -50.6% 22% -36.6%
20% -55.5% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$15 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions16
Markets (closed)79 / 95
History coverage20d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+31%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 57¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $141 +$46 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$18 +139%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$12 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $10 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $141 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.00 · official $163.00 (match) · 125 history records