Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc357…667f world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 27% −$2
politics 21% $0
sports 13% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.1% -15.1% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -2.1% -11.5% 31% 0% -10.4%
all 49 -1.6% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage268d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $71 −$5 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $38 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $1 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $1 $0 -34%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $32 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $4 $0 -13%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $7 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $25 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $4 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $6 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $3 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $17 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $37 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $37 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.05 · official $36.98 (match) · 160 history records