Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C3 0xc356…8052 crypto 18 markets active 9h ago coverage 26d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,525 (+22%) realized +$3,300 · open +$2,225

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$1,397per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$14,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$103

7 days+$141

14 days+$138

30 days+$260

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-49.2%	-54.1%	33%	33%	+3.3%
≤30d	17	-9.9%	-18.5%	59%	53%	+1.3%
≤90d	17	-9.9%	-18.5%	59%	53%	+1.3%
all	17	-9.9%	-18.5%	59%	53%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.5%	53%	+1.3%
10%	-26.3%	35%	-8.4%
15%	-33.4%	18%	-17.2%
20%	-39.9%	18%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$40 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$14,875

Realized+$3,300

Unrealized+$2,225

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage26d

Avg bet$1,397

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	36¢	42¢	$12,650	$14,875	+$2,225 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$103	−$78	-76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$866	+$244	+28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$102	−$3	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	May 29	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	May 29	$26	+$30	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	May 29	$25	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	May 28	$104	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	May 28	$207	+$18	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	May 28	$102	+$23	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	May 28	$203	+$26	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	May 28	$104	+$13	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	May 28	$104	+$95	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	May 28	$40	−$38	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	May 28	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	May 28	$105	+$81	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	May 28	$26	+$4	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$26	8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	3¢	$25	8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	87¢	$265	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	49¢	$152	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$844	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$713	5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1,716	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$244	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2,046	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$39	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$3	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$309	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$3	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$830	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$64	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Ilia Topuria	24¢	$99	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	24¢	$102	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$106	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$0	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$929	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$639	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$0	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$0	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$0	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$585	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$265	9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1	9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,874.99 · official $14,874.99 (match) · 117 history records