Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc353…f2e1 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-8%) realized −$71 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%81W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$28
14 days−$56
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$66
other 9% −$24
crypto 7% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +7.1% -3.1% 32% 32% -26.2%
≤30d 100 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 35% -23.7%
≤90d 209 -20.7% -28.2% 39% 34% -22.7%
all 209 -20.7% -28.2% 39% 34% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 34% -22.7%
10% -35.1% 30% -30.1%
15% -41.4% 26% -36.9%
20% -47.1% 22% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses81 / 128
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)209 / 211
History coverage50d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 75¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+74%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$3 -17%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $9 −$3 -34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$6 +54%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1 +$2 +215%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 45m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 46m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $1 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 29¢ $3 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 16¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 61¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 37¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 35¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 24¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 6¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 18¢ $9 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 17¢ $9 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 8¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 4¢ $1 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 1¢ $1 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 85¢ $4 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.16 · official $4.16 (match) · 415 history records