Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc353…a4a4
other · 120 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$31 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage108d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Grizzlies 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nets vs. Lakers Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Bucks Bucks 51¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Heat Pistons 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Pistons Pistons 57¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Cavaliers 44¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Spurs Rockets 34¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Spurs Bulls 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $408 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $288 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $292 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $296 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $538 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $287 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $456 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $297 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$16
politics 37% −$13
sports 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $280 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $280 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $265 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $265 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 22d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 22d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 22d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $270 22d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $270 23d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 24d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $212 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $212 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -4.6% -13.7% 6% 4% -9.7%
all 119 -3.6% -12.7% 11% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 335 history records