Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc352…a152 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,511 (-8%) realized −$15,511 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%163W / 51L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$882
14 days+$882
30 days−$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$15,649
other 1% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.4% -0.1% 100% 25% -1.1%
≤30d 12 -13.4% -21.7% 75% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 101 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 50% -14.2%
all 214 -2.2% -11.5% 76% 48% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -16.4%
10% -20.0% 28% -24.4%
15% -27.7% 18% -31.7%
20% -34.8% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,301) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$685 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses163 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage241d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,502 +$72 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2,504 +$125 +5%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,461 +$71 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,999 +$613 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $80 −$80 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $163 −$83 -51%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2,503 −$2,500 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2,004 +$144 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $2,003 +$100 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2,006 +$216 +11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,304 +$141 +11%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner May 28 $301 +$43 +14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner May 23 $83 +$49 +59%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $744 −$732 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $626 +$120 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $1,595 −$970 -61%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $921 +$700 +76%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 16 $614 +$308 +50%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 4 Winner May 16 $531 +$85 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $1,399 −$1,295 -93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $1,394 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $1,234 +$162 +13%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $831 +$61 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1,301 +$43 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1,144 +$164 +14%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $922 +$77 +8%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $833 +$89 +11%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $735 +$98 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 13 $693 +$42 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $626 +$67 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $518 +$108 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $453 +$65 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $367 +$86 +24%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $296 +$71 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $264 +$31 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek May 11 $206 +$58 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $182 +$24 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $147 +$36 +24%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $96 +$51 +53%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alph May 09 $117 −$114 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $363 −$360 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $263 +$150 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $236 +$28 +12%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $150 +$85 +57%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $131 +$19 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $112 −$112 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $119 −$117 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $94 +$26 +27%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North Am May 06 $66 +$27 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,575 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,502 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,629 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,504 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,532 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $459 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,001 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,001 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,612 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $1,999 3d
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 80¢ $80 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana SELL Matteo Berrettini 29¢ $80 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Matteo Berrettini 57¢ $163 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $2,503 24d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $2,148 24d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 93¢ $2,004 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $2,103 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 95¢ $2,003 25d
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 90¢ $2,006 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 90¢ $1,304 25d
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner SELL M80 100¢ $344 25d
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 87¢ $301 26d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY NRG 49¢ $132 30d
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud9 100¢ $133 30d
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 62¢ $83 31d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Movistar KOI 46¢ $744 37d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $746 37d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $138 37d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $489 37d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 31¢ $625 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records