Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34e…a72a world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$7
other 28% +$14
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 0% -10.6%
all 36 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 3% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage448d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $3 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $56 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $44 −$6 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $13 $0 -3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? May 05 $3 $0 +7%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $16 +$15 +94%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will anyone audibly fart during tariff event on April 2? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump 10% blanket tariff go into effect by Saturday? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 01 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $39 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $39 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $28 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $8 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $36 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.38 · official $40.26 (match) · 115 history records