Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc34e…bb55 crypto 360 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$29 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%216W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days−$28
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% +$29
politics 16% −$41
other 14% +$6
weather 12% −$35
crypto 11% −$56
culture 9% −$15
finance 8% +$41
tech 5% +$2
sports 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.8% -17.5% 67% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 118 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -9.4%
≤90d 207 -0.9% -10.3% 58% 44% -10.5%
all 340 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 42% -10.1%
10% -20.9% 27% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 18% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses216 / 124
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)340 / 360
History coverage146d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 80¢ 97¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+21%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 80¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $6 $13 +$6 (+92%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 77¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 48¢ 22¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-56%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 68¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 7¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-82%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? No 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? No 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 7? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $73 +$4 +5%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$6 +29%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $14 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +13%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 57m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $3 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 99¢ $71 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $10 15h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 87¢ $63 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $13 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 50¢ $7 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $10 3d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 3d
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.10 · official $146.10 (match) · 872 history records