Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc34d…da97 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-18%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1
other 45% −$11
sports 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -37.4%
≤30d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -37.4%
≤90d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -37.4%
all 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -37.4%
10% -24.6% 47% -43.4%
15% -31.9% 42% -48.9%
20% -38.5% 21% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 37 history records