Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34d…5461 other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$326 (+3%) realized +$245 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +125% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip
Net edge+88%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%124W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$236
14 days+$143
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$19
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+103.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +285.4% +248.7% 83% 75% +242.1%
≤30d 56 +342.6% +300.4% 77% 73% +1.1%
≤90d 167 +144.3% +121.0% 64% 44% -11.9%
all 204 +124.8% +103.4% 61% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +103.4% 43% -12.0%
10% +84.0% 34% -20.4%
15% +66.2% 30% -28.1%
20% +49.9% 27% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +125% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +234% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$31 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses124 / 80
Open positions16
Markets (closed)204 / 209
History coverage99d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $9 $96 +$88 (+1005%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 32¢ $9 $72 +$63 (+719%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $9 $37 +$29 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+83%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$187 +2737%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$7 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +750%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$101 +9110%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +340%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$9 +204%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$26 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $0 +$9 +6969%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $154 −$153 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $0 +$5 +1730%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $34 +$49 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +617%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $0 +$4 +3351%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $13 +$119 +933%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $6 +$4 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $1 +$2 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $21 +$108 +514%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $18 +$13 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 +$177 +1033%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$4 +173%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 +$16 +1157%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $121 −$106 -87%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $0 +$1 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $157 +$122 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $25 +$16 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $227 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.98 · official $214.99 (match) · 1917 history records