Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34b…e485 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$13
other 18% −$1
sports 11% −$3
crypto 8% $0
economics 8% +$2
weather 7% +$1
politics 5% $0
finance 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 11% -6.9%
≤90d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 11% -6.9%
all 35 -1.0% -10.5% 49% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -8.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -17.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage484d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $54 +$14 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $51 −$3 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $7 $0 -1%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 06 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $14 −$3 -18%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 09 $64 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 3? Apr 07 $0 $0 -61%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or below on April 5? Apr 04 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $31 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 03 $47 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $46 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 22 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 2 Mar 05 $44 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $44 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $65 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $67 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $68 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $49 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $53 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $53 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $48 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 13d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $7 359d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $1 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records