Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34b…0714 crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%157W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$161
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.8% -1.6% 67% 44% -18.6%
≤30d 206 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 54% -12.1%
≤90d 251 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 51% -12.0%
all 251 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 51% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 37% -20.4%
15% -29.4% 29% -28.1%
20% -36.3% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses157 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Down 48¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $35 +$20 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET Jun 05 $45 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 05 $57 −$51 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3PM ET Jun 04 $52 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1PM ET Jun 04 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12PM ET Jun 04 $29 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $43 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Jun 04 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$8 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.74 · official $47.74 (match) · 3417 history records