Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34b…f099 crypto 84 markets active 10h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-40%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%17W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$43
politics 28% −$47
other 12% −$6
sports 7% +$18
world 6% −$8
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.5% -19.0% 25% 22% -32.3%
≤30d 63 -21.5% -28.9% 25% 21% -40.5%
≤90d 83 -29.8% -36.5% 20% 17% -53.3%
all 83 -29.8% -36.5% 20% 17% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 17% -53.3%
10% -42.6% 16% -57.8%
15% -48.1% 16% -61.9%
20% -53.2% 16% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses17 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$18 +854%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $7 −$5 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.64 · official $3.64 (match) · 206 history records