Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc349…82d7
other · 149 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$36 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$125
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions139
Markets (closed)9 / 149
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day584.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 139 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? Yes 41¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+4494%)
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ? Yes 24¢ 39¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+62%)
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ? Yes 31¢ 63¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+103%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No 51¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Starmer say "Record Funding" during the next PMQ? Yes 14¢ 46¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+225%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? Yes 16¢ 48¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+197%)
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ? Yes 12¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+187%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? No 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+79%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+109%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 45¢ 51¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? No 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+35%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 16? No $1 $2 +$1 (+267%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.2%? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? OpenAI $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next PMQ? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will 50 Cent attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -49%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$12
politics 40% −$4
crypto 6% +$16
sports 6% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 4m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 6m
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes $0 23m
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 25m
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 29m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 31m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 51m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 1h
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? BUY OpenAI $1 1h
Will Morocco win the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 1h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $0 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $0 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? BUY OpenAI $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+111.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +133.3% +111.1% 11% 11% -99.5%
≤30d 9 +133.3% +111.1% 11% 11% -99.5%
≤90d 9 +133.3% +111.1% 11% 11% -99.5%
all 9 +133.3% +111.1% 11% 11% -99.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover584.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.1% 11% -99.5%
10% ← realistic here +90.9% 11% -99.5%
15% +72.5% 11% -99.6%
20% +55.6% 11% -99.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.71 · official $107.72 · 1463 history records