Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc345…8e8c other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,873 (-51%) realized −$2,839 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days−$1,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$3,156
sports 14% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤30d 12 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 42% -60.6%
≤90d 49 -25.4% -32.5% 29% 29% -57.8%
all 49 -25.4% -32.5% 29% 29% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 29% -57.8%
10% -39.0% 27% -61.8%
15% -44.9% 24% -65.5%
20% -50.3% 22% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$112 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2,839
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage51d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 14¢ $48 $14 −$34 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $299 −$294 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $140 +$159 +114%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $257 −$16 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$21 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 +$5 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $557 −$550 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $1,176 −$1,156 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 20 $245 +$432 +177%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $255 −$251 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $76 −$73 -97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $53 −$28 -52%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $81 +$22 +28%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $265 −$261 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $34 −$26 -75%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $256 −$227 -89%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $280 −$19 -7%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $59 −$58 -99%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 +$61 +124%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 −$99 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $97 −$96 -99%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) May 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $295 −$201 -68%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $6 +$32 +566%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 +$11 +54%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $9 +$17 +188%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 03 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 +$21 +68%
Spread: Getafe CF (-2.5) May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5) May 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $55 +$41 +74%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score May 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 +$31 +307%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $155 +$138 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $49 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $299 10h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $140 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $140 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $82 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $100 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $557 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $501 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $675 28d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) SELL Aston Villa FC 100¢ $677 28d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $255 29d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 34¢ $245 29d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $49 32d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 32d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 32d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 32d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $104 32d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 34d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 35d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $194 35d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 4¢ $34 39d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.66 · official $13.66 (match) · 106 history records