Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc345…05d3 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,004 (-9%) realized −$1,015 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,082
7 days−$1,391
14 days−$1,391
30 days−$1,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$398
sports 26% −$736
other 15% −$478
tech 4% +$48
crypto 1% −$151
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -42.0% -47.6% 23% 15% -43.4%
≤30d 13 -42.0% -47.6% 23% 15% -43.4%
≤90d 14 -46.2% -51.3% 21% 14% -43.6%
all 41 -17.3% -25.2% 61% 17% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 17% -24.6%
10% -32.4% 10% -31.9%
15% -38.9% 7% -38.4%
20% -44.9% 7% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$181 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized−$1,015
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage154d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $400 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $614 −$394 -64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $410 −$380 -93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $450 −$440 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $296 +$704 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 −$620 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $662 +$48 +7%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$123 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$12 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $6 +$4 +67%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $16 +$4 +27%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $373 −$269 -72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $452 −$347 -77%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $99 +$9 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,168 +$38 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $246 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $390 +$10 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $197 +$3 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $226 −$27 -12%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $171 +$29 +17%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 27 $445 +$48 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $296 +$13 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $100 +$6 +6%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $384 +$16 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $440 +$22 +5%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 21 $50 −$13 -26%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $505 +$45 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $327 +$31 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $139 +$10 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $171 +$16 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $52 +$7 +12%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 8AM ET Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $627 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $662 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $296 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $91 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $101 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 8¢ $1 8d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 18¢ $10 73d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $5 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.15 · official $811.15 (match) · 136 history records