Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc341…9a9f world 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,861 (+11%) realized +$4,140 · open −$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%99W / 64L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$17
14 days+$56
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 44% +$348
world 43% +$4,095
crypto 9% −$74
other 3% −$100
politics 1% −$9
sports 0% −$136
tech 0% +$13
weather 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% -10.1%
≤30d 40 -19.0% -26.7% 58% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 93 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 48% +0.1%
all 163 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 46% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 46% +2.5%
10% -14.2% 32% -7.3%
15% -22.5% 20% -16.2%
20% -30.1% 14% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$66 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$1,830
Realized+$4,140
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses99 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)163 / 172
History coverage131d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 84¢ 76¢ $905 $816 −$89 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 98¢ $500 $589 +$89 (+18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 86¢ 100¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 57¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 35¢ 23¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-98%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $2,101 −$110 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $150 +$90 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $250 +$74 +30%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $160 +$35 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$75 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$101 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$205 +137%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $500 +$176 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $183 −$50 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 14 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $400 +$125 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $76 −$76 -99%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 08 $46 −$45 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $70 +$18 +26%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $250 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $71 +$6 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,230 −$427 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $75 +$9 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $50 +$4 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $234 +$119 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $379 +$126 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $454 +$114 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $237 +$84 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $473 +$107 +23%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $150 +$27 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $130 +$123 +94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 26 $452 +$59 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 +$97 +968%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $56 −$22 -39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $81 +$35 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 11 $71 +$7 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 11 $290 −$148 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 76¢ $202 6m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,558 8m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $202 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $303 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $303 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 21¢ $188 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $80 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 53¢ $204 21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 55¢ $204 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 90¢ $201 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 58¢ $142 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 98¢ $148 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $50 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $324 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $55 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 65¢ $30 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 33¢ $91 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 59¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $200 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 81¢ $202 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 49¢ $51 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,829.96 · official $1,830.07 (match) · 661 history records