trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 11 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m | Jan 08 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m | Jan 05 | $78 | −$78 | -100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than | Jan 05 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m | Jan 05 | $24 | −$2 | -9% |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | Jan 05 | $9 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? | Jan 04 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? | Jan 03 | $8 | +$7 | +82% |
| Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? | Jan 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? | Jan 03 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 | Jan 02 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 01 | $7 | +$3 | +41% |
| Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Dec 30 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Dec 30 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -44.0% | -49.3% | 50% | 50% | -79.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -44.0% | -49.3% | 50% | 50% | -79.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -44.0% | -49.3% | 50% | 50% | -79.0% |
| all | 15 | -56.6% | -60.7% | 27% | 27% | -79.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -60.7% | 27% | -79.3% |
| 10% | -64.5% | 20% | -81.3% |
| 15% | -67.9% | 13% | -83.1% |
| 20% | -71.1% | 7% | -84.8% |