Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc33b…2372 crypto 178 markets active 3d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,330 (-20%) realized −$3,327 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%47W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$156
14 days+$255
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$2,957
sports 27% +$246
other 9% −$309
tech 2% −$182
politics 1% −$100
world 0% −$30
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.4% +7.1% 47% 47% +1.6%
≤30d 37 +10.9% +0.3% 43% 43% -8.8%
≤90d 75 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 36% -18.2%
all 173 -31.0% -37.6% 27% 26% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 26% -29.2%
10% -43.6% 25% -36.0%
15% -49.0% 25% -42.1%
20% -54.0% 20% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$64 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$3,327
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses47 / 126
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions5
Markets (closed)173 / 178
History coverage216d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 +$111 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$65 +48%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $188 +$112 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$95 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $105 −$5 -5%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $83 +$117 +140%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $92 −$16 -17%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $117 −$116 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $106 −$104 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 +$100 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 31 $97 −$96 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $83 −$82 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $502 −$268 -53%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $99 +$101 +101%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $106 −$104 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $51 +$116 +226%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $20 +$63 +307%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $185 +$108 +58%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 +$60 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $101 +$95 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $32 +$68 +216%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5 May 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $161 +$139 +86%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 16 $119 +$81 +67%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 16 $31 +$29 +96%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $27 −$4 -16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $158 −$156 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $117 +$215 +183%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $49 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $55 5d
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Knicks $11 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $77 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $83 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $89 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $103 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $49 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 26¢ $106 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up $5 15d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $97 17d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $102 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $83 20d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 57¢ $225 21d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 26¢ $106 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.29 · official $196.30 (match) · 442 history records