Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc33b…8fe0 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$166 (-7%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%41W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$134
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 40% -3.8%
≤30d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 40% -3.8%
all 69 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -15.5%
10% -25.9% 22% -23.6%
15% -33.0% 14% -31.0%
20% -39.6% 7% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses41 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage106d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 09 $94 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 09 $58 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 09 $39 −$39 -99%
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 09 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 07 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 07 $30 −$25 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 07 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 07 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET Mar 07 $80 −$30 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET Mar 07 $70 −$48 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 06 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 05 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 05 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET Mar 04 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3PM ET Mar 04 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 04 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$9 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $39 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $11 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $27 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $14 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records