Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc33a…cc98 weather 1366 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$211 (-0%) realized −$213 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%1243W / 70L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$59
14 days−$111
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$62
other 7% +$20
world 2% +$881
politics 2% +$14
sports 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$36
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -1.9% -11.3% 92% 15% -10.2%
≤30d 748 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 1313 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 9% -7.4%
all 1313 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 9% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 9% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 4% -16.3%
15% -25.3% 2% -24.4%
20% -32.6% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,944
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1243 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1313 / 1366
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 1313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $498 $512 +$14 (+3%)
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No 91¢ 95¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 95¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $16 9m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $50 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 32m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $30 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $9 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $27 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,944.41 · official $2,944.62 (match) · 3500 history records