Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc338…a2e4 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$142 (+66%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+100.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +121.5% +100.4% 100% 100% +54.8%
≤30d 3 +121.5% +100.4% 100% 100% +54.8%
≤90d 3 +121.5% +100.4% 100% 100% +54.8%
all 3 +121.5% +100.4% 100% 100% +54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +100.4% 100% +54.8%
10% +81.3% 67% +40.0%
15% +63.8% 67% +26.5%
20% +47.7% 67% +14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $103 +$13 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$24 +239%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 13¢ $113 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 13¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $35 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records