Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc337…a3d5 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%35W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$90
other 29% −$3
crypto 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses35 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage589d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 26 $1,824 −$2 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? Aug 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 Feb 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $830 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $854 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? Jan 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? Dec 08 $22 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Dec 07 $18 $0 -0%
Predators vs. Senators Dec 07 $6 $0 -4%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Dec 07 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Dec 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Dec 07 $98 −$85 -86%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Dec 07 $41 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Islanders Dec 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? Dec 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? Dec 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? Dec 06 $23 $0 -1%
Raiders vs. Buccaneers Dec 06 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 57d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 146d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 207d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $1,822 238d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $1,824 238d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,901 238d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,903 238d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 99¢ $20 244d
Will Solana reach $340 in August? BUY No 100¢ $1 301d
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 329d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 361d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 422d
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 423d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 430d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 454d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 455d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 465d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 98¢ $2 466d
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 480d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 480d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 BUY No 100¢ $2 487d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $829 490d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $830 490d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.37 · official $35.37 (match) · 152 history records