Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc337…a0f6 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$194 (+8%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$302
other 16% −$10
crypto 10% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 12 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 50% -4.0%
10% -29.1% 42% -13.2%
15% -35.9% 33% -21.6%
20% -42.2% 25% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$108 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage170d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 13 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 13 $73 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Cardinals vs. Rams Jan 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $510 +$382 +75%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $352 +$157 +45%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 25 $468 −$468 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline Jan 25 $282 +$71 +25%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 05 $394 −$10 -2%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $195 +$173 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $87 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $73 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $25 125d
Rams vs. Seahawks SELL Seahawks 98¢ $892 143d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $510 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos SELL Patriots 94¢ $510 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Patriots 65¢ $352 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline SELL Patriots 49¢ $0 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline SELL Patriots 49¢ $352 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline BUY Patriots 24¢ $97 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline BUY Patriots 59¢ $184 143d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Ravens 52¢ $192 164d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Ravens 48¢ $2 164d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Ravens 43¢ $97 164d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Ravens 66¢ $176 164d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $176 164d
Cardinals vs. Rams BUY Cardinals 6¢ $10 164d
Cardinals vs. Rams BUY Cardinals 15¢ $3 164d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 164d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 165d
Seahawks vs. 49ers SELL Seahawks 100¢ $368 165d
Seahawks vs. 49ers BUY Seahawks 53¢ $195 169d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $195 169d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $121 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records