Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C3 0xc334…a0aa other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$73 (+6%) realized +$69 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$146per market

Trades / day11.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+37.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+52.2%	+37.7%	50%	50%	-3.9%
≤30d	6	+52.2%	+37.7%	50%	50%	-3.9%
≤90d	6	+52.2%	+37.7%	50%	50%	-3.9%
all	6	+52.2%	+37.7%	50%	50%	-3.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.7%	50%	-3.9%
10%	+24.5%	50%	-13.1%
15%	+12.5%	50%	-21.5%
20%	+1.4%	17%	-29.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$158 vs −$137 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$323

Realized+$69

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$146

Trades / day11.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	59¢	52¢	$100	$87	−$13 (-13%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	32¢	$69	$87	+$18 (+26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$59	+$263	+442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$403	−$400	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$252	+$100	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$252	+$110	+44%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$9	49m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	12¢	$9	50m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$151	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$61	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$59	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$302	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$252	16h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$252	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.17 · official $323.17 (match) · 15 history records