Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc333…543e crypto 211 markets active 11h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$970 (+19%) realized +$1,054 · open −$84
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%66W / 137L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$84
14 days+$52
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$163
world 15% +$1,257
other 10% −$123
sports 6% +$113
economics 5% −$62
finance 3% −$101
politics 2% −$113
tech 1% −$38
weather 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 25% +12.8%
≤30d 49 -12.6% -21.0% 31% 29% -21.1%
≤90d 203 -11.2% -19.7% 33% 31% +7.8%
all 203 -11.2% -19.7% 33% 31% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 31% +7.8%
10% -27.4% 29% -2.6%
15% -34.4% 25% -12.0%
20% -40.8% 23% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$18 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$1,054
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses66 / 137
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)203 / 211
History coverage70d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$159 +388%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -29%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 10 $30 −$9 -31%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$4 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $10 −$2 -22%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$10 -33%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $21 +$41 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $48 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $52 −$24 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $142 −$140 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 29 $37 −$20 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $36 −$35 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $21 +$59 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $52 −$45 -88%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $25 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $30 +$121 +404%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $20 +$49 +245%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $35 +$29 +82%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 23 $75 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 22 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $55 +$8 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 20 $10 −$5 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $5 10h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $26 10h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $25 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $19 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $35 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes $9 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes $10 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $25 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $16 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $26 6d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $21 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $41 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $42 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $10 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $16 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 6d
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.77 · official $151.77 (match) · 615 history records