Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc333…b085 crypto 877 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$367 (-1%) realized −$349 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%440W / 523L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day150.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,707
other 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -92.6% -93.3% 2% 2% -96.6%
≤30d 963 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 38% -15.6%
≤90d 963 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 38% -15.6%
all 963 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 38% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 30% -23.6%
15% -37.5% 22% -31.0%
20% -43.6% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses440 / 523
Open positions1
Markets (closed)963 / 877
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day150.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$15 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$9 -230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$8 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $8 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $196 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $153 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $98 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $155 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $378 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $155 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $155 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $177 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $154 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $151 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $219 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $466 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $178 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $225 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $209 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $75 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $90 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $388 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $199 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $12.30 (match) · 3500 history records