Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc331…b5be crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%48W / 10L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$1
other 39% +$1
politics 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 90% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 16% -8.8%
all 58 -1.6% -10.9% 83% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 12% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 7% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses48 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage134d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 June 1-7? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 9? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on April 30? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +23%
Will Solana dip to $70 April 6-12? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 8? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 08 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on March 30? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 30 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Mar 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 16-22? Mar 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Mar 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Mar 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 22? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 22 Mar 30 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 22 $1 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 15? Feb 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 22 $37 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Feb 22 $49 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Feb 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 14? Feb 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 12? Feb 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 11? Feb 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 10 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.70 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $6 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $50 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 39d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 39d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 39d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on April 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 49d
Will Solana dip to $70 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $5 67d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 67d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 67d
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 67d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 70d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 70d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? BUY No 99¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 70d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 79d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 79d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.82 · official $71.82 (match) · 122 history records