Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc330…9794 other 360 markets active 2h ago coverage 1188d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$930 (-0%) realized −$1,030 · open +$100
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate59%202W / 140L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,219per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,079now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$80
14 days+$120
30 days+$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$1,093
other 15% +$1,385
politics 10% −$371
sports 1% −$19
economics 0% −$1,189
world 0% +$367
finance 0% −$128
tech 0% −$109
culture 0% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.3% -35.1% 33% 33% +39.9%
≤30d 17 +52.5% +38.0% 47% 41% +22.4%
≤90d 29 +4.8% -5.1% 34% 31% +5.4%
all 342 +1.1% -8.6% 59% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 27% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 20% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 16% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$670) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$102 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1188d coverage
Net worth$2,079
Realized−$1,030
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses202 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions17
Markets (closed)342 / 360
History coverage1188d
Avg bet$1,219
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 57¢ $401 $315 −$85 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $315 $276 −$39 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $200 +$40 (+25%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $160 $188 +$28 (+18%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $183 +$32 (+21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $178 $182 +$4 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 60¢ $58 $159 +$101 (+175%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $118 $137 +$19 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $80 $98 +$18 (+22%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 69¢ $59 $80 +$21 (+36%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 79¢ $86 $79 −$7 (-8%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $14 −$22 (-61%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $8 −$29 (-79%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $105 +$121 +115%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $98 −$48 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $24 −$8 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $102 +$66 +65%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 +$32 +170%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $28 +$169 +596%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $201 −$197 -98%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? May 30 $387 +$9 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $106 +$294 +276%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $49 +$97 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $83 −$78 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $59 −$10 -17%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 0 Liverpool FC? May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $262 +$108 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $500 +$290 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $580 −$134 -23%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $60 +$40 +67%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Mar 07 $904 +$238 +26%
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $129 +$21 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 05 $1,976 +$24 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $8,630 +$26 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 26 $181 −$181 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 26 $147 +$153 +104%
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace? Jan 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $125 −$95 -76%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 04 $13 −$13 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $30 +$52 +172%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $136 +$114 +84%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $59 +$20 +33%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $7 +$93 +1329%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Jan 01 $96 +$29 +30%
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2025? Jan 01 $137 +$5 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $560 +$14 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December? Jan 01 $567 +$13 +2%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Jan 01 $1,560 +$88 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $60 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $226 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY $21 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $334 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $16 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $50 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 12¢ $29 8d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 8d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $155 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $16 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 57¢ $168 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,079.29 · official $2,079.30 (match) · 1454 history records