Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc32f…0053 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$198 (-1%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$11
other 18% −$5
economics 18% −$5
politics 16% −$1
crypto 5% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 34 +0.0% -9.5% 76% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 9% -10.2%
10% -18.2% 6% -18.8%
15% -26.1% 6% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage270d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? Apr 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 19 $138 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 27 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Feb 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $3,333 −$3 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $3,345 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 13? Jan 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $4,533 −$5 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $4,548 −$5 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $4,561 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 2? Dec 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Dec 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 28? Nov 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 05 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 1? Oct 04 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $200 −$199 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $4,125 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 35d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 42d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 57d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 89d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 118d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? SELL No 100¢ $70 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 118d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $138 119d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 133d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $37 156d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 157d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,330 160d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,333 160d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,342 160d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,345 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $28 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 167d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $4,528 172d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4,533 173d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $4,543 173d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4,548 173d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $4,556 173d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $4,561 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.95 · official $94.95 (match) · 233 history records