Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc32e…203d sports 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,668 (-8%) realized −$2,668 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%230W / 202L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$302
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$1,400
politics 23% −$30
other 14% −$1,201
economics 7% −$2
crypto 1% −$23
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$50
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 33% +2.5%
≤30d 3 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 33% +2.5%
≤90d 3 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 33% +2.5%
all 432 +5.4% -4.6% 53% 52% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 52% -16.8%
10% -13.7% 47% -24.8%
15% -22.1% 41% -32.1%
20% -29.7% 30% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$45 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses230 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)432 / 432
History coverage236d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 432 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,691 +$806 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $319 −$315 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $261 −$189 -72%
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $999 −$999 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $50 +$23 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $100 +$19 +19%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $100 +$28 +28%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5 Jan 16 $200 +$111 +55%
Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5 Jan 16 $53 +$42 +78%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Jan 15 $506 +$248 +49%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $22 −$6 -25%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jan 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Jan 12 $199 −$199 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jan 12 $50 +$27 +54%
Liverpool FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $28 +$14 +52%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 Jan 11 $25 +$23 +92%
Nets vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5 Jan 11 $23 −$23 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $200 +$98 +49%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $14 +$20 +144%
Hellas Verona FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Levante UD vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $32 +$12 +36%
SC Heerenveen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $107 +$25 +24%
SC Heerenveen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $60 −$3 -5%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 11 $20 +$14 +72%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $142 +$404 +284%
Atalanta BC vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $227 −$86 -38%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $10 +$14 +144%
Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Jan 10 $10 +$10 +96%
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $30 +$9 +32%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $30 +$13 +45%
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jan 10 $35 −$30 -85%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $11 +$35 +316%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 106.5 Jan 10 $10 +$8 +78%
Clippers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 103.5 Jan 10 $10 +$8 +80%
76ers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5 Jan 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $55 +$37 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 09 $11 −$11 -99%
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 Jan 09 $116 +$50 +43%
Valencia vs. Monaco Jan 08 $40 −$40 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jan 08 $100 +$56 +56%
BC Dubai vs. Fenerbahce Jan 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,497 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,691 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $319 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $73 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $193 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 30h
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $999 149d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $531 150d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $250 150d
Liverpool FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 150d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 150d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 150d
Liverpool FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 150d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $100 150d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 150d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $311 151d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $200 151d
Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 151d
Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5 BUY Over 56¢ $53 151d
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $754 152d
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $506 152d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $16 154d
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $500 154d
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $100 154d
Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $28 155d
Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $111 155d
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 155d
Liverpool FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $12 155d
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $50 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 984 history records