Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C3 0xc32a…f7eb other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$366 (+17%) realized +$367 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate33%9W / 18L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day75.7pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-28.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-21.4%	-28.9%	33%	26%	+4.4%
≤30d	27	-21.4%	-28.9%	33%	26%	+4.4%
≤90d	27	-21.4%	-28.9%	33%	26%	+4.4%
all	27	-21.4%	-28.9%	33%	26%	+4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover75.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-28.9%	26%	+4.4%
10% ← realistic here	-35.7%	26%	-5.6%
15%	-41.9%	26%	-14.7%
20%	-47.6%	19%	-23.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late -52% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$105 vs −$35 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.49 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$367

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses9 / 18

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 30

History coverage2d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day75.7

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States?	Jun 27	$103	+$1	+1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 27	$31	−$31	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	Jun 27	$52	−$52	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	Jun 27	$30	−$30	-100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia?	Jun 27	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 27	$40	−$40	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$100	+$1	+1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$103	+$120	+116%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$133	−$1	-1%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$202	+$120	+59%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 26	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 26	$30	−$30	-100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands?	Jun 26	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia?	Jun 26	$21	−$21	-100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 26	$71	−$71	-100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States?	Jun 26	$103	−$103	-100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$512	+$229	+45%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States?	Jun 26	$50	+$40	+80%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 26	$51	+$177	+346%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 26	$81	+$37	+46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	Jun 26	$51	+$220	+429%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	19¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN	BUY	5¢	$50	7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	4¢	$50	14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	3¢	$31	14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	5¢	$37	14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	5¢	$11	14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	14¢	$42	14h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	15h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	11¢	$222	15h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	15h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$23	15h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	10¢	$59	15h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	15h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	9¢	$131	15h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$322	15h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$24	16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$0	16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$13	16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$0	16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$11	17h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	4¢	$50	17h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$133	17h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$202	17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.68 · official $48.68 (match) · 135 history records