Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc329…e038 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$100 (+4%) realized +$138 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%17W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$159
14 days+$115
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$162
politics 25% −$62
sports 16% +$142
crypto 10% +$148
tech 8% +$37
world 7% −$18
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.9% -18.5% 36% 36% +18.5%
≤30d 16 -20.8% -28.3% 31% 31% -20.9%
≤90d 59 -65.4% -68.7% 12% 12% -26.8%
all 82 -16.6% -24.6% 21% 21% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 21% -5.6%
10% -31.8% 20% -14.6%
15% -38.4% 17% -22.9%
20% -44.4% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$14 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses17 / 65
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions18
Markets (closed)82 / 100
History coverage177d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 36¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $26 $11 −$15 (-57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-49%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-68%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-87%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$159 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $38 +$25 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$7 -28%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $103 +$35 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $190 +$62 +32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$42 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 03 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $21 +$17 +82%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $14 +$59 +414%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $190 +$141 +74%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026? Apr 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 20? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026 Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "N Word" in March? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $63 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $19 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $26 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $10 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $5 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $1 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $19 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $8 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 18d
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 18d
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Bryce Mitchell 52¢ $40 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 18d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.95 · official $199.97 (match) · 310 history records