Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc329…f401 world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,192 (+32%) realized +$3,146 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 44L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3,133
other 14% +$20
politics 10% +$48
sports 5% −$3
finance 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 92 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 38% +19.6%
all 92 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 38% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 38% +19.6%
10% -18.4% 24% +8.1%
15% -26.3% 21% -2.3%
20% -33.5% 12% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$12 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.12 per $1 lost it wins $7.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$3,146
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage74d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 95¢ $96 $140 +$44 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 06 $90 −$15 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $137 +$29 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $700 +$882 +126%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $500 +$514 +103%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $430 +$381 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $935 +$382 +41%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $46 +$45 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $240 +$37 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $400 +$52 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $33 +$12 +36%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 24 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $100 −$2 -2%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $100 −$4 -4%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $300 +$15 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $199 +$66 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $288 +$111 +39%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 22 $51 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $113 +$192 +170%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $30 −$1 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $214 +$170 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $542 +$236 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 21 $50 −$13 -26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 21 $38 −$5 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 20 $50 −$7 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 20 $2 $0 +7%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $41 +$4 +11%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 20 $177 −$50 -28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 20 $30 +$4 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $302 −$24 -8%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $16 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $98 +$11 +12%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $44 −$42 -96%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 19 $17 $0 -2%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $17 $0 -2%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 19 $100 +$91 +91%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $14 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 1h
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $75 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $811 54d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $690 54d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 83¢ $92 54d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $277 54d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $452 54d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $70 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $100 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $40 56d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 94¢ $42 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $50 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $150 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $100 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $90 56d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 51¢ $51 56d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 90¢ $36 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $80 56d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 84¢ $84 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $100 56d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $98 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $100 56d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $103 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $170 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $40 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $100 56d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 65¢ $96 56d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 68¢ $100 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $100 56d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $101 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.08 · official $265.08 (match) · 468 history records