Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc327…b138 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 24% +$9
politics 16% +$2
crypto 4% −$2
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 51 -1.7% -11.1% 37% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -8.9%
10% -19.6% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 2% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage308d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $122 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $3 −$1 -23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Sep 02 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $1 $0 -24%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 20 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $50 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $49 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $48 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $43 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $54 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records