Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc326…cb55 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-10%) realized −$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day87.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$94
sports 5% +$53
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 31% -16.8%
≤30d 122 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 31% -16.8%
≤90d 122 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 31% -16.8%
all 122 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 31% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 31% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 24% -24.8%
15% -46.3% 16% -32.1%
20% -51.6% 13% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day87.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 11¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.54 · official $1.54 (match) · 401 history records