Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc326…1db1
tech · 169 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$10,408 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,102 · open +$2,609
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,973
Realized+$5,102
Unrealized+$2,609
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses87 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions42
Markets (closed)127 / 169
History coverage53d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day63.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 42 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$1,226
14 days+$1,478
30 days+$1,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $8,146 $10,390 +$2,244 (+28%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $1,010 $1,001 −$9 (-1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $753 $756 +$3 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $731 $742 +$12 (+2%)
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No 75¢ 75¢ $662 $660 −$2 (-0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $620 $638 +$17 (+3%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 59¢ 70¢ $501 $593 +$93 (+19%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $443 $456 +$13 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 86¢ 90¢ $425 $446 +$21 (+5%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $402 $444 +$42 (+10%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 50¢ 87¢ $170 $298 +$128 (+75%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 73¢ 77¢ $219 $232 +$13 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $190 $181 −$9 (-5%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $154 $177 +$24 (+15%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $162 $170 +$8 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $175 $164 −$11 (-6%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? No 79¢ 93¢ $138 $163 +$25 (+18%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $158 $162 +$4 (+3%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 49¢ 48¢ $147 $144 −$3 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 34¢ 32¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 44¢ $98 $91 −$7 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 80¢ 90¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $148 +$52 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 12 $199 −$6 -3%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$6 -13%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$31 -13%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $373 +$31 +8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $382 +$51 +13%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $593 +$166 +28%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 10 $322 +$92 +28%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $57 +$18 +32%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $121 +$45 +37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $303 −$31 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $597 +$565 +95%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $370 +$45 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $377 +$84 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $169 +$71 +42%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $217 −$13 -6%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $161 +$40 +25%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control O Jun 09 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 09 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $270 −$3 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $305 +$112 +37%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $302 −$73 -24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $114 +$2 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $152 +$27 +18%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $71 +$129 +180%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $371 +$59 +16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $28 +$104 +375%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $747 −$42 -6%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $262 +$3 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $718 +$40 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $666 +$47 +7%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $861 +$31 +4%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 01 $209 +$9 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $354 +$6 +2%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1,064 +$128 +12%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $48 −$9 -19%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $405 −$251 -62%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 29 $111 −$6 -6%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $166 +$4 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $84 +$5 +6%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? May 26 $12 +$11 +91%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 22 $171 −$95 -56%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? May 21 $0 +$6 +5923%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? May 21 $53 +$11 +21%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by Dece May 21 $115 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 50% +$1,220
other 37% +$4,365
world 9% +$1,254
politics 4% +$405
finance 0% +$331
sports 0% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 8m
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $43 8m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 20m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 29m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 30m
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 37m
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 1h
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $111 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $3 1h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 2h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4h
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 20¢ $8 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 52% +9.2%
≤30d 59 +48.0% +33.9% 68% 41% +0.4%
≤90d 127 +72.7% +56.3% 69% 37% -2.0%
all 127 +72.7% +56.3% 69% 37% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.3% 37% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here +41.3% 28% -11.4%
15% +27.7% 22% -20.0%
20% +15.1% 16% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,973.37 · official $18,974.42 (match) · 3500 history records