Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc323…dc3b sports 29 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$5 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
politics 35% +$3
sports 10% −$9
other 5% +$11
crypto 4% −$7
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.1% +3.2% 100% 100% +3.3%
≤30d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 38% -0.3%
≤90d 24 -8.7% -17.4% 71% 42% -11.6%
all 24 -8.7% -17.4% 71% 42% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 42% -11.6%
10% -25.3% 25% -20.1%
15% -32.5% 21% -27.8%
20% -39.1% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage102d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $228 $232 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $89 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $70 $76 +$7 (+10%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 79¢ 84¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 46¢ 42¢ $44 $39 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators May 07 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Flyers vs. Jets Apr 12 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 11 $8 +$4 +49%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026? Apr 11 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 04 $16 +$4 +22%
Red Wings vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Jets vs. Rangers Mar 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Lightning Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 26 $12 +$11 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $13 6d
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nick Hardt 88¢ $10 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 92¢ $8 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 95¢ $21 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $11 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 95¢ $14 26d
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 40d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 40d
Maple Leafs vs. Senators BUY Senators 62¢ $12 62d
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap BUY No 86¢ $10 62d
Flyers vs. Jets BUY Flyers 46¢ $5 66d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 59¢ $7 66d
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 73d
Panthers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 67¢ $8 73d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? BUY Up 51¢ $10 82d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $17 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 86d
Jets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 53¢ $12 86d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 85¢ $89 96d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 16¢ $70 98d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $228 98d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $42 100d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 46¢ $44 101d
Red Wings vs. Hurricanes BUY Red Wings 38¢ $3 108d
Sabres vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 68¢ $6 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.04 · official $479.04 (match) · 155 history records