Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc31c…fb90 crypto 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$722 (+1%) realized +$713 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate82%443W / 97L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days−$180
14 days−$140
30 days−$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$996
sports 29% +$618
other 6% +$365
politics 2% +$395
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 35% -11.5%
≤30d 237 +7.2% -3.0% 80% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 540 +3.1% -6.7% 82% 40% -9.0%
all 540 +3.1% -6.7% 82% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 40% -9.0%
10% -15.6% 21% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 11% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$87 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses443 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)540 / 541
History coverage70d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 95¢ 100¢ $182 $191 +$9 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $184 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $184 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $184 +$35 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $184 +$30 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $99 −$98 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $179 +$44 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $177 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $502 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $493 −$160 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $173 +$228 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $185 +$21 +12%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $182 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $176 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $174 +$54 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $174 +$43 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $167 +$49 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $165 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $165 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $165 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $161 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $161 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $157 +$60 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $145 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$43 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$190 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$43 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $86 −$84 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$33 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $184 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $184 22m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $182 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $184 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 76¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $179 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $177 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $191 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $276 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $173 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $183 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $206 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $185 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 99¢ $182 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.91 · official $190.81 (match) · 1317 history records