Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc31a…94f7 other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$879 (-3%) realized −$868 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate35%66W / 122L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$133
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$579
crypto 22% −$104
world 7% +$74
sports 5% +$40
politics 4% −$46
finance 4% −$197
culture 2% −$10
weather 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.8% -25.6% 50% 50% +24.9%
≤30d 7 -29.5% -36.2% 43% 43% +15.6%
≤90d 72 -6.9% -15.8% 21% 12% -25.0%
all 188 +4.2% -5.7% 35% 14% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 14% -12.3%
10% -14.7% 12% -20.7%
15% -23.0% 10% -28.4%
20% -30.5% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$868
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses66 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 192
History coverage186d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 82¢ $302 $311 +$8 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 71¢ 87¢ $99 $122 +$22 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $82 $72 −$9 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $48 $16 −$32 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $121 +$61 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $79 +$79 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $50 −$20 -39%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $60 +$40 +67%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $279 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $271 −$199 -74%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 03 $90 −$89 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 +$20 +70%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $40 +$10 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $283 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? May 01 $6 +$17 +300%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $246 +$12 +5%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 24 $61 −$1 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $248 −$12 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $83 −$6 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 22 $55 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $200 +$45 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $206 +$11 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $50 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $110 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $8 −$2 -18%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 18 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $5 $0 -4%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matches Apr 18 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Golden State Warriors advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament? Apr 14 $180 −$35 -19%
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungari Apr 12 $224 −$4 -2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 12 $162 −$16 -10%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second- Apr 12 $30 −$8 -26%
Mexico City: Bor Artnak vs Rodrigo Pacheco Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-01? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 5? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 5? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Apr 08 $15 −$12 -84%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $101 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $54 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $45 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $18 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $100 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $62 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $183 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.95 · official $519.45 (match) · 663 history records