Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc318…1adb world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$5 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$12
other 38% −$1
finance 21% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.1% +0.6% 75% 75% +10.1%
≤30d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 56% -3.8%
≤90d 29 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 48% -11.7%
all 29 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 48% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 48% -11.7%
10% -20.8% 31% -20.2%
15% -28.5% 17% -27.9%
20% -35.5% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 78¢ $4 $10 +$5 (+121%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 35¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+171%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $16 +$5 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 04 $5 +$2 +32%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +11%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 30 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 30 $6 +$7 +122%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 17 $2 −$1 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 17 $3 −$2 -77%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 29 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April? Apr 29 $10 −$9 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $18 −$13 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 25 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 22 $6 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 19 $3 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 19 $3 +$2 +65%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 19 $10 −$2 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $7 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 0m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 0m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 78¢ $4 37m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 78¢ $1 39m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 59¢ $1 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 26¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.20 · official $38.20 (match) · 241 history records